Luis J. Aguirre-Lopez

The volcano rabbit (Romerolagus diazi), endemic to the central-eastern Transmexican Volcanic Belt, is one of the most threatened lagomorphs worldwide. Several factors threaten to decrease its geographical distribution, which is already restricted to the Pelado, Tláloc, Iztaccíhuatl, and Popocatépetl volcanoes. Our study aimed to propose priority areas for the conservation of this rabbit within Iztaccíhuatl-Popocatépetl National Park (IPNP) based on species distribution models. Volcano rabbit presence data were collected through different field sampling techniques and public and private databases. The environmental predictors used to model suitability were obtained from both open-access remote sensors and topographic information. The models’ performance was adjusted by evaluating different sets of variables and data to improve the certainty of the results. We obtained an area of 132.5 km 2 within the IPNP potentially occupied by the volcano rabbit and a high suitability area of 7 km 2. In addition, four priority conservation polygons for the volcano rabbit were identified within the National Park. We showed that the suitability and potential distribution are not uniform in the park, being the alpine meadow dominated by Muhlenbergia sp., the most suitable area for R. diazi. Therefore, the conservation strategies should focus on preserving these meadows in the prioritized polygons, avoiding tourist and unskilled personnel’s access. This work represents a contribution to the conservation of the volcano rabbit and a theoretical and practical tool for use in the IPNP.

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species’ probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of ‘natural’ settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species’ geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human–natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species’ distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species’ distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species’ distributions.